Overview of domestic and international macroeconomic news on September 1     2009-9-7

        [August CPI decline narrowed, PPI up] meat and egg prices continue to rise, prices began to bottom rebound? A number of experts predicted: "August CPI and PPI will bottom out as expected." Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that in particular, food prices in CPI rose steadily and slightly, and meat and eggs rebounded this month, which did not rule out the possibility of inducing the market to over associate with the future inflation prospects. He Zhicheng, senior economist of Agricultural Bank of China, also believes that the decline of CPI will narrow in August, and the decline of PPI will close to - 6%.

        [the profits of listed steel companies are declining, and 47 companies are on the verge of loss, with a loss of 7.1 billion] most of the recently released semi annual reports of steel enterprises are not ideal. Except WISCO and Minmetals development have recorded weak profits, it is difficult for Benxi Steel, Valin steel and TISCO stainless steel to avoid losses. According to the statistics of Tianxiang investment, as of the end of August, 47 listed companies in Tianxiang iron and steel sector achieved a net profit of - 7.105 billion yuan in the first half of the year, compared with 42.65 billion yuan in the same period last year, "the overall profit of iron and steel stocks in the first half of the year was worse than that of the whole industry".

        [in August, the national PMI was 54.0%, which was above the critical point for six consecutive months] according to the information released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, in August 2009, the National Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 54.0%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of last month. The index has been at the critical point of more than 50% for six consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing economy as a whole has continued to recover steadily. In August 2009, the five sub indexes of manufacturing PMI rose four times and fell one.

        [30 days before the new loan of about 300 billion yuan in August, the four major banks only lent about 135 billion yuan] the reporter learned from people familiar with the situation yesterday that as of August 30, the credit supply of the four major banks (industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, bank of China and Construction Bank) in August was about 135 billion yuan, which means that the credit supply of the four major banks in August will fall further on the basis of July, and it is likely to be less than 300 billion yuan. According to the Research Report of CITIC Securities, although the credit scale in August decreased significantly compared with that in the first half of the year, the medium and long-term loans are expected to remain at about 500 billion yuan.

        [RMB exchange rate] on September 1, 2009, the middle rate of US dollar to RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was US $1 to RMB 6.8308, up 4 basis points from yesterday.

International aspect

        [the inflation rate in the euro area remained negative in August] according to the preliminary data released by Eurostat on August 31, the inflation rate in the euro area remained negative at an annual rate of 0.2%. This is the third consecutive month of negative inflation in the euro area. However, the inflation rate in August was much higher than the negative 0.7% of last month, indicating that the worst period for the euro zone economy is likely to be over.

        [India's economy grew by 6.1% in the second quarter] in the second quarter of this year, India's GDP grew by 6.1% year-on-year, higher than the growth rate of  5.8% in the last quarter, but still far behind the growth rate of 7.8% in the same period last year, according to the data released by the Indian government on August 31. Analysts believe that the expected economic growth shows that the measures taken by the Indian government to stimulate demand have a certain effect, but the economic growth in the second half of the year may be affected by the late rainy season.